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Housing outcomes

What happens to a dwelling between being planned and being lived in by a household that can afford it. Every loss is named.
Housing outcomesModel output
  1. Planned1,250
  2. −200Not yet contracted
    Under contract1,050
  3. −840Still under construction
    Completed210
  4. −24Awaiting connection
    Connected to services186
  5. −101Completed but not occupied
    Occupied85
  6. −26Occupied but not affordable
    Occupied and affordable59

Binding constraint. No household could finance the purchase

The Housing Fund cannot lawfully finance the purchase of a developer-built dwelling. The mortgage channel therefore contributes nothing to demand, and household purchasing power binds the funnel.

Connection, occupancy and affordability are computed from household income, credit access and price. They are model outputs, not counts of households.

Unit: homes

Show the data as a table
StageHomesShare of plannedLost at this step
Planned1,250100%–
Under contract1,05084%200
Completed21017%840
Connected to services18615%24
Occupied857%101
Occupied and affordable595%26
  • PlannedIndependently verified
  • Under contractIndependently verified
  • CompletedIndependently verified
  • Connected to servicesModel output
  • OccupiedModel output
  • Occupied and affordableModel output

Planned, contracted and completed are counted from the record. Completion is counted from milestones an independent agent certified.

The affordability test

Model output
Most a median household can pay
81.0M
Median household income
18.0M
Share of income allowed for housing
30%
Housing finance usable for this purchase
0%

The Housing Fund cannot lawfully finance the purchase of a developer-built dwelling. The mortgage channel therefore contributes nothing to demand, and household purchasing power binds the funnel.

Under construction

840

Assumption register: 4345b3b0afeb849c